Source: https://geektyrant.com
Could MOANA Lose $100 Million at the Box Office? Disney May Need to Hit Pause on These Live-Action Remakes
Disney has spent the last decade proving that almost every animated classic can be turned into a live-action blockbuster. Sometimes that strategy prints money. Other times it leaves audiences wondering why the remake exists in the first place. Unfortunately for Disney, Moana looks like it might be drifting into that second category. On paper, this should've been another easy win. The original 2016 animated film became one of Disney's biggest modern franchises, dominated streaming, sold mountains of merchandise, and turned songs like"How Far I'll Go" into global anthems. So how did the live-action version end up opening with a disappointing $43 million domestically and $95 million worldwide? The answer might be simpler than Disney wants to admit. Fans loved Moana . They just weren't asking for this movie. Making matters worse, this wasn't a cheap gamble. The film reportedly carried a massive $250 million production budget, with another estimated $120 million spent on marketing. That's an enormous investment for a movie that stumbled right out of the gate. Unless it finds incredible legs over the coming weeks, Moana could wind up losing well over $100 million during its theatrical run. As analyst Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations explained:"Disney’s strategy is dependent on whether audiences see the remake as an event or a duplicate. This was the latter. People wanted Moana 3 , not a remake of the original." That pretty much sums up the problem. Disney built the modern live-action remake machine with movies like Beauty and the Beast , The Lion King , Aladdin , Cinderella , The Little Mermaid , Mulan , Dumbo , and Lady and the Tramp . Some became billion-dollar juggernauts. Others... well... let's just say audiences weren't exactly racing back for repeat viewings. What's becoming clear is that simply recreating an animated movie scene-for-scene isn't enough anymore. Especially when the original is sitting on Disney+ waiting to be watched whenever someone feels nostalgic. Ironically, Disney just proved this formula can still work. Last year's live-action Lilo & Stitch crossed the billion-dollar mark worldwide despite adapting a movie released in 2002. That remake arrived after more than two decades, giving an entire generation time to grow up and introduce the story to their own kids. Moana didn't have that luxury. Yes, the original premiered ten years ago, but audiences also got Moana 2 just two years ago after Disney transformed what started as a Disney+ series into a theatrical sequel. That's a lot of Moana in a very short amount of time. It's hard to miss something when it barely left. David A. Gross, who runs the FranchiseRe movie consulting firm, believes Disney may have rushed the timing."The takeaway for Disney has to be, how long does it take for an animated film to become a classic? As we just saw, it’s not about how successful the last film in the series is. It takes time to be a classic, not just success." That's an important distinction. Popularity isn't the same thing as nostalgia. One gets people talking. The other gets them buying movie tickets. Even stranger is that the Moana brand itself couldn't be healthier. The original animated film remains the most-watched movie on Disney+, while Moana 2 sailed past the $1 billion mark worldwide. Merchandise continues flying off shelves, with more than 22 million toys sold since 2016. The franchise has inspired attractions across more than 40 Disney parks and generated an incredible 26 billion music streams, including 4.8 billion plays of"How Far I'll Go." This franchise isn't broken. The remake simply didn't feel necessary. Critics weren't exactly impressed either, with many calling it a shot-for-shot recreation of the animated film. Audiences have been kinder, giving it an"A-" CinemaScore, suggesting word-of-mouth could help soften the blow. Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak, thinks the coming weeks will tell the real story."Opening weekend is important, but Moana is going to be about long-term playability. That means you don’t want to see a 60-70% second-weekend drop." Disney would certainly welcome a repeat of Mufasa , which recovered from a slow opening to earn $722 million worldwide. But the road ahead for Moana looks considerably rougher. The movie now has to compete with Toy Story 5 , Universal's Minions & Monsters , and premium screens are already being handed over to The Odyssey . Those giant IMAX and premium format tickets make a huge difference for expensive blockbusters trying to claw their way toward profitability. And speaking of profitability... Because theaters keep roughly half of every ticket sold, Moana reportedly needs around $600 million globally just to break even. That's a tall mountain to climb after a $95 million worldwide debut. If the film follows a similar path to Snow White , which finished with just $205 million worldwide against its own $250 million production budget, Disney could be staring at theatrical losses north of $100 million. Budget discipline also deserves a serious conversation. Dwayne Johnson reportedly earned close to $30 million between starring as Maui and producing the film, along with his usual backend participation. Production delays caused by the 2023 labor strikes added even more costs. Compare that to Lilo & Stitch , which reportedly cost around $100 million and didn't rely on massive star salaries. One movie became a billion-dollar hit. The other is trying to avoid becoming one of Disney's biggest live-action disappointments. That's not a coincidence. Of course, Disney doesn't judge these movies solely by ticket sales. Franchises like Moana feed merchandise, theme parks, Disney+, music, licensing, and countless other revenue streams. The character isn't going anywhere, and reports already indicate a third animated film is in development. But maybe Disney should rethink how often it revisits these worlds. Gross notes that Disney has traditionally waited an average of 27 years before remaking its animated classics. That gap helped turn films like Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King into billion-dollar events. As Gross explained:"During that time, the remakes added an entirely new audience. It’s been a very successful strategy." There's also a danger in waiting too long. Movies like Snow White and Dumbo struggled because newer generations simply don't have the same emotional connection to those stories anymore. So there really is a sweet spot. That could explain why Disney is moving ahead with a live-action Tangled , based on the 2010 animated hit, while reportedly focusing future efforts on a Lilo & Stitch sequel and spinoffs centered on Cinderella's stepsisters and Gaston from Beauty and the Beast. Dergarabedian doesn't think Disney will abandon the remake strategy anytime soon."Disney will keep making these. For every one that doesn’t do well, there will be a Lilo & Stitch that sets the world on fire. The studio just has to keep the budgets in line." He's probably right. The remakes aren't going away. But Moana might become the movie Disney points to during future planning meetings whenever someone pitches remaking a beloved animated film that audiences literally just watched a couple of years ago. Sometimes the best way to keep the magic alive isn't to remake it as fast as possible. Sometimes it's letting people miss it first.
Source: https://geektyrant.com
Live-Action MOANA is Sinking at the Box Office and It's Almost Matching SNOW WHITE's Disappointing Run
Disney's latest live-action remake has hit some rough waters . After years of turning its animated classics into live-action blockbusters, the studio has finally run into another major stumble, with Moana struggling to find an audience in theaters. Starring Catherine Laga'aia as Moana and Dwayne Johnson returning as Maui, the film has now earned just $95 million worldwide. According to Deadline , it's currently on track to lose more than $100 million if it finishes its theatrical run at around $250 million. No matter how you look at it, those numbers put Moana among the weakest performers in Disney's long-running wave of live-action remakes. Its $43 million domestic opening weekend is nowhere near the launches of previous Disney remake hits. The Lion King opened to $191 million, Beauty and the Beast debuted with $174 million, and Aladdin brought in $91 million during its first weekend in North America. The only remake sitting in the same neighborhood is Snow White , which also opened to $43 million domestically. Moana is performing a little better internationally, but that's hardly the kind of comparison Disney was hoping to make. At this point, it's hard to ignore a bigger trend. Moviegoers have become much more selective about what they leave the house to see. Tickets aren't cheap, concessions certainly aren't getting any cheaper, and audiences seem far less interested in showing up simply because a familiar Disney title is playing on the big screen. That's especially true when the movie is another live-action version of a film people already love. Some fans have wondered whether audiences are simply getting tired of these remakes. That could be part of the story, but it's probably more complicated than that. Just last year, Disney's live-action Lilo & Stitch remake crossed the $1 billion mark worldwide, proving there's still plenty of appetite for the right project. Timing may have worked against Moana , though. The release comes not long after Moana 2 , a sequel that didn't generate the same level of enthusiasm as the beloved original animated film. It's possible audiences weren't exactly eager to revisit the same story again so soon. The marketing also didn't seem to spark much excitement. The trailers never quite captured the vibrant energy, heart, and visual magic that made the animated movie such a fan favorite. Instead, many fans felt something was missing. There were warning signs before release, too. Early reactions to Johnson's Maui wig quickly became the butt of online jokes, along with the nippleless bodysuit he wore, and the first wave of reactions to the movie itself was fairly underwhelming. Word of mouth on the film hasn‘t been good either. There was nothing to help build momentum heading into opening weekend. Disney clearly isn't slowing down its remake strategy despite these results. A live-action Tangled is still moving forward, a sequel to the live-action Lilo & Stitch has already been greenlit, and while the live-action Hercules has gone quiet for a while, it hasn't officially disappeared. The bigger question is whether Disney should take a step back and rethink its approach. Not every animated classic needs a live-action version, and audiences have become pretty good at deciding which ones feel worth their time and money. Familiarity alone isn't enough anymore. Fans want a reason to buy a ticket beyond watching a story they've already seen with real actors. Disney has enjoyed enormous success with this formula over the years, but it also feels like the studio needs to start reading the room. The excitement that once surrounded these remakes isn't automatic anymore. If a project doesn't look special, fresh, or necessary, audiences are increasingly comfortable waiting for streaming instead of making a trip to the theater. There's no question Disney will continue making live-action adaptations because the right one can still become a massive hit. But Moana joining Snow White near the bottom of the remake rankings is another reminder that this strategy isn't guaranteed to work every time. These days, moviegoers are making every ticket count, and Disney may have to work a lot harder to convince them that its next remake deserves one of those precious trips to the theater.